Survey: Iowa's Influential Republicans Leery of Romney's Ground Game

The nasty, little not-so-secret fact of the 2012 Presidential election is that it matters little how many people support Barack Obama or how many support Mitt Romney.

What really matters is how many people will actually vote for each candidate.

By that measure, influential Democrats in Iowa head into Tuesday's election far more confident in the Obama campaign's ability to get people to the polls than the state's influential Republicans are about Romney's campaign.

The latest Iowa Poll for Election 2012 shows the president up in the state by 5 points. National presidential polls show a statistical dead-heat with Obama maintaining an edge in battleground states.

Iowa's six Electoral College votes could play a disproportionately large roll in the election because without them, the path to the necessary 270 becomes more difficult for both candidates, but especially Romney. 

In Patch's final Red and Blue Iowa surveys prior to the election, only 60 percent of hard-core, influential Republicans said they felt Romney's campaign has run the better ground game, and of those who gave the nod to the challenger, most gave him only a slim advantage.

By contrast, 96 percent of influential Democrats said the Obama campaign has run the better ground game, and 88 percent of them gave the nod to the president by a wide margin.

"Turnout will be critical with the polls in the swing states all showing tight races," said one Democrat surveyed.

Democrats hold a large lead in early voting in Iowa, making a large Election Day surge critical for Republicans if Romney is to capture the state.

And the Iowa Republicans surveyed have a track record of knowing what they're talking about: They correctly predicted Newt Gingrich's pre-Caucus surge in Iowa long before it was detected in polling -- and they correctly predicted his downfall, based largely on his lack of ground game in Iowa.

The objective numbers on the ground appear to support the conclusions of Patch's Red and Blue Iowans.

The Obama campaign has 67 offices in Iowa compared to the Romney campaign's 13, and as of last week 60,552 more Democrats than Republicans have cast ballots in the state.

Nationally, the Obama campaign said it has registered 1,792,261 voters in key battleground states, "nearly double the number of voters the Obama campaign registered in 2008."

A memo from the president's campaign states that the campaign has made 125,646,479 personal phone calls or visits up to this past weekend, which doesn't include things like robocalls and leaving literature on doors. That blows away the 50 million voter contacts the Romney campaign has claimed, and that campaign included mailers left at doors.

The 60 Republicans and Democrats responding to the survey are a mix of current and former office holders, party leaders, candidates and activists. The survey was inspired by academic research that showed endorsements by party "actors" at all levels are a critical leading indicator of primary presidential elections.

They were promised their individual responses would be kept confidential but that their participation would be noted.

Red Iowa Roster: Justin Arnold, State Sen. Jack Whitver, Randy Munson, Amanda Freel, Steve Boal, State Rep. Kevin Koester, Carmine Boal, Rick Hermann, Wade Steenhoek, Skye Alison, Mike St. Clair, Jeremy Davis, Cory Adams, Chad Steenhoek, Rick Sanders, Ronald Stenstrom, Mike Nolan, Marilyn Krocheski, Karen Svede, Paul Fell, James Wilson, Dusty Juhl, Elizabeth Kuennen, Robert White, Jeff Angelo, George Forbes, Darrow Uhlenhopp, Jacqui Norman, Ben Rittgers, Randy Yontz, Chad Airhart, Isaiah McGee, Shane Blanchard, Rob Taylor, Jon McAvoy, Mike Elam, Chris McLinden, Arleigh Clemens, Deb Thornton, Cynthia Michel, William Keettel, Natalie Ginty, Debra Derksen, Irene Chalmers-Neubauer, Roger Anderson, Leah Adams, Tim Hagle, Jim Sandager, Polk County Supervisor Robert Brownell, Charles Schneider, Mary Kramer, Jim Aipperspach, Steve Gaer, Eric Woolson, Gregory Hudson, Gary Kirke, Westside Conservative Club Founder Paul Zietlow, State Rep. Scott Raecker, Jacob Chapman, Jill Ellsworth, Polk County Supervisor E.J. Giovannetti, Paula Dierenfeld, Urbandale City Councilman Creighton Cox, Andy Christenson, Connie Schmett, Will Rogers, Matt Nolan, Paul French, Kathy French, Judd Saul, Greg Tagtow, Mac McDonald.

Blue Iowa Survey: Jan Bauer, Abishek Vemuri, Beth Wessel Krochell, Wayne Clinton, Tom Beell, Jim Gaunt, Ethan Fredricke, Don Zuck, Bob Kressig, Jeff Danielson, Pat Sass, Don Page, Pam Gross, Tavis Hall, Sally Browne, Roger White, Terry Dahms, Sarah Swisher, Katherine Valde, Mike Carbrerry, Caroline Dieterle, Scott Syroka, Virginia Soelberg, Marcia Nichols, Judy Anderson, Tom Leffler, Bill Unger, Pat Walters, Mari Hall, George Lake, Seth Moomey, Amber Mussman, Cody Crawford, Jan McCool, Mary Polson, Dan Cataldi, Kris Winters, Mike Newell, Rick Smith, Carl Johnson, Gail Kotoval, David Leonard, Julie Zeisman, Eric Brenneman, Sue Ellen Kennedy, Joe Shanahan, Laurie Belin, Saundra Ragona, Kathi Phillips, Karen Moriarity.