Iowa Republicans are cautious about Mitt Romney’s chances of defeating President Obama in November’s general election. A big part of the reason may be the former Massachusetts governor's failure to win over Ron Paul supporters, who constitute a significant portion of delegates headed to the Tampa convention.
That's the main finding of the inaugural Red Iowa survey conducted by Iowa Patches.
Seventy-four percent of influential state Republicans surveyed say they agree that Romney will defeat Obama in Iowa in November, but only 41 percent feel strongly about the GOP’s chances for recapturing the White House.
Why? The answer could have something to do with Rep. Ron Paul, who finished a strong third in the Iowa caucuses behind former Sen. Rick Santorum and Romney.
The 37 Republicans responding to this Red Iowa survey are a mix of current and former office holders, party leaders, candidates and activists. The survey was inspired by academic research showing that endorsements by party "actors" at all levels — officeholders, party officials and local activists — are a critical leading indicator of primary presidential elections.
Red Iowa looks at the mood of influential Republicans as campaigning for the general election approaches. Coming soon is Blue Iowa, our survey of influential state Democrats.
The results of our first survey may be unsurprising given Paul’s control of the state’s GOP delegates heading to Tampa for the party’s nominating convention in Tampa.
But the survey is an eye-opener into just how difficult a time Republicans think Romney has had wooing Paul supporters more than two months after the Texas congressman withdrew from the race.
Less than 3 percent of the Republicans surveyed agreed strongly that Romney has gained the support of Ron Paul supporters, and only 35 percent agreed “somewhat” that he has won them over.
In contrast, nearly 22 percent completely disagree that Paul supporters are supporting Romney and another 30 percent somewhat disagree. About 14 percent were neutral on the question.
Participants in Red Iowa and Blue Iowa are noted, but their answers are kept confidential. If you’d like to take part in either survey, contact Iowa Regional Editor Todd Richissin at email@example.com.
Red Iowa Roster: State Sen. Jack Whitver, Randy Munson, Amanda Freel, Steve Boal, State Rep. Kevin Koester, Carmine Boal, Rick Hermann, Wade Steenhoek, Skye Alison, Mike St. Clair, Jeremy Davis, Cory Adams, Chad Steenhoek, Rick Sanders, Ronald Stenstrom, Mike Nolan, Marilyn Krocheski, Karen Svede, Paul Fell, James Wilson, Dusty Juhl, Elizabeth Kuennen, Robert White, Jeff Angelo, George Forbes, Darrow Uhlenhopp, Jacqui Norman, Ben Rittgers, Randy Yontz, Chad Airhart, Isaiah McGee, Shane Blanchard, Rob Taylor, Jon McAvoy, Mike Elam, Chris McLinden, Arleigh Clemens, Deb Thornton, Cynthia Michel, William Keettel, Natalie Ginty, Debra Derksen, Irene Chalmers-Neubauer, Roger Anderson, Leah Adams, Tim Hagle, Jim Sandager, Polk County Supervisor Robert Brownell, Charles Schneider, Mary Kramer, Jim Aipperspach, Steve Gaer, Eric Woolson, Gregory Hudson, Gary Kirke, Westside Conservative Club Founder Paul Zietlow, State Rep. Scott Raecker, Jacob Chapman, Jill Ellsworth, Polk County Supervisor E.J. Giovannetti, Paula Dierenfeld, Urbandale City Councilman Creighton Cox, Andy Christenson, Connie Schmett, Will Rogers, Matt Nolan, Paul French, Kathy French, Judd Saul, Greg Tagtow, Mac McDonald.