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Red Iowa Survey: Iowa’s Powerful Ron Paul Republicans Still Leery of Mitt Romney

Our inaugural Red Iowa survey of influential Republicans — an offshoot of our previous Power Outsiders project — shows some mixed results regarding Mitt Romney as we head into the 2012 general election.

Iowa Republicans are cautious about Mitt Romney’s chances of defeating President Obama in November’s general election. A big part of the reason may be the former Massachusetts governor's failure to win over Ron Paul supporters, who constitute a significant portion of delegates headed to the Tampa convention.

That's the main finding of the inaugural Red Iowa survey conducted by Iowa Patches.

Seventy-four percent of influential state Republicans surveyed say they agree that Romney will defeat Obama in Iowa in November, but only 41 percent feel strongly about the GOP’s chances for recapturing the White House.

Why? The answer could have something to do with Rep. Ron Paul, who finished a strong third in the Iowa caucuses behind former Sen. Rick Santorum and Romney.

The 37 Republicans responding to this Red Iowa survey are a mix of current and former office holders, party leaders, candidates and activists. The survey was inspired by academic research showing that endorsements by party "actors" at all levels — officeholders, party officials and local activists — are a critical leading indicator of primary presidential elections.

Red Iowa looks at the mood of influential Republicans as campaigning for the general election approaches. Coming soon is Blue Iowa, our survey of influential state Democrats.

The results of our first survey may be unsurprising given Paul’s control of the state’s GOP delegates heading to Tampa for the party’s nominating convention in Tampa.

But the survey is an eye-opener into just how difficult a time Republicans think Romney has had wooing Paul supporters more than two months after the Texas congressman withdrew from the race.

Less than 3 percent of the Republicans surveyed agreed strongly that Romney has gained the support of Ron Paul supporters, and only 35 percent agreed “somewhat” that he has won them over.

In contrast, nearly 22 percent completely disagree that Paul supporters are supporting Romney and another 30 percent somewhat disagree. About 14 percent were neutral on the question.

Participants in Red Iowa and Blue Iowa are noted, but their answers are kept confidential. If you’d like to take part in either survey, contact Iowa Regional Editor Todd Richissin at todd.richissin@patch.com.

Red Iowa Roster: State Sen. Jack Whitver, Randy Munson, Amanda Freel, Steve Boal, State Rep. Kevin Koester, Carmine Boal, Rick Hermann, Wade Steenhoek, Skye Alison, Mike St. Clair, Jeremy Davis, Cory Adams, Chad Steenhoek, Rick Sanders, Ronald Stenstrom, Mike Nolan, Marilyn Krocheski, Karen Svede, Paul Fell, James Wilson, Dusty Juhl, Elizabeth Kuennen, Robert White, Jeff Angelo, George Forbes, Darrow Uhlenhopp, Jacqui Norman, Ben Rittgers, Randy Yontz, Chad Airhart, Isaiah McGee, Shane Blanchard, Rob Taylor, Jon McAvoy, Mike Elam, Chris McLinden, Arleigh Clemens, Deb Thornton, Cynthia Michel, William Keettel, Natalie Ginty, Debra Derksen, Irene Chalmers-Neubauer, Roger Anderson, Leah Adams, Tim Hagle, Jim Sandager, Polk County Supervisor Robert Brownell, Charles Schneider, Mary Kramer, Jim Aipperspach, Steve Gaer, Eric Woolson, Gregory Hudson, Gary Kirke, Westside Conservative Club Founder Paul Zietlow, State Rep. Scott Raecker, Jacob Chapman, Jill Ellsworth, Polk County Supervisor E.J. Giovannetti, Paula Dierenfeld, Urbandale City Councilman Creighton Cox, Andy Christenson, Connie Schmett, Will Rogers, Matt Nolan, Paul French, Kathy French, Judd Saul, Greg Tagtow, Mac McDonald.

ron sundermann June 21, 2012 at 06:18 PM
As i tool around Cedar Rapids, IA, I see that the owners of homes with Ron P. signs in the yards are folks I'm judging to be 'old.'' If that's the case they'd better not extend their hand to be bitten because this old geezer (Paul) weil see to it that a godly portion will be bitten off. My site-seeing poll might be as much as 44.56% off, but it 's better than the other guys have. I thought paully was all done? when is he gonna go back to the kennel?
Todd Richissin June 22, 2012 at 01:02 AM
Ron: I'm surprised. Most of the data shows Ron Paul supporters to be largely young. Why are you judging them to be old? I'm just curious.
Phil Stanley June 22, 2012 at 03:56 AM
Of all registered voters: 2% Third Party 27% Republican 31% Democrat 40% Independent Ron Paul is the ONLY Republican who is polling higher among Independents than Obama. That is why he is the ONLY Republican who can win.
David Leonard June 22, 2012 at 04:08 PM
I certainly hope Ron Paul is the only Republican who can win because he's not going to be on the ballot. If it's not too late, he could run as an independent, but that would guarantee President Obama of re-election.
Jennifer June 23, 2012 at 10:19 PM
Since when did Ron Paul withdrawal from the race? I must have missed that one. Oh yeah I forgot he didn't.
Todd Richissin June 27, 2012 at 02:57 PM
More on Ron Paul supporters in Iowa http://ankeny.patch.com/articles/patch-poll-will-ron-paul-s-supporters-help-or-hurt-romney-in-the-coming-election
wade winters October 01, 2012 at 04:18 AM
If Ron Paul Republicans don't support Romney, they will make Obama a sure thing. Then that will assure our status as a 3rd world country! Woody

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