Nothing is saying Republican can't win his 1st District congressional seat race against Democrat Bruce Braley, but if he emerges victorious his own party will be surprised.
Influential Iowa Republicans are supremely confident of their ability to win two of Iowa’s four congressional seats in November’s election, but they express far less certainty about the remaining races, including Lange-Braley.
Of the 33 people surveyed in Patch.com's Red Iowa survey, only 32 percent either strongly agreed or somewhat agreed that they are confident of a Lange victory. The remainder were either neutral or disagreed.
The Republicans surveyed were somewhat more confident in the race between Republican John Archer versus Democrat Dave Loebsack in the 2nd District — but not much. In that race, 37 percent of those polled said they agreed that Archer would win; of that group, only 15 percent said they strongly agreed that the Republicans would capture the seat.
Moving west, Republicans are certainly more optimistic.
They say without qualification, however, that Republican Tom Latham will defeat Democrat Leonard Boswell and that Republican Steve King will defeat Democrat Christie Vilsack. The King-Vilsack race is being watched closely nationally, as is the Latham-Boswell matchup, which the National Journal has identified as one of five “blue chip” House races in the country.
The 33 Republicans responding to this Red Iowa survey are a mix of current and former office holders, party leaders, candidates and activists. The survey was inspired by academic research showing that endorsements by party "actors" at all levels — officeholders, party officials and local activists — are a critical leading indicator of primary presidential elections.
Red Iowa looks at the mood of influential Republicans as campaigning for the general election approaches. Coming soon is Blue Iowa, our survey of influential state Democrats.
This week, all of them, without exception, said they either somewhat or completely agree that both King and Latham will win in the Nov. 6 election.
“Christie Vilsack may be able to raise all kinds of out-of-state money, but when she comes face-to-face with Steve King in debates this fall, she’s going to get shredded by him,” said one Republican. “Iowa voters know where she stands, even if she doesn’t care to reveal her positions and her background fully.”
Said another, about the Latham-Boswell race: “Not only will Tom Latham out-raise and out-spend Leonard Boswell, Tom is going to out-work Leonard. Latham will have a historic win against Boswell.”
Participants in Red Iowa and Blue Iowa are noted, but their answers are kept confidential. If you’d like to take part in either survey, contact Iowa Regional Editor Todd Richissin at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Red Iowa Roster: State Sen. Jack Whitver, Randy Munson, Amanda Freel, Steve Boal, State Rep. Kevin Koester, Carmine Boal, Rick Hermann, Wade Steenhoek, Skye Alison, Mike St. Clair, Jeremy Davis, Cory Adams, Chad Steenhoek, Rick Sanders, Ronald Stenstrom, Mike Nolan, Marilyn Krocheski, Karen Svede, Paul Fell, James Wilson, Dusty Juhl, Elizabeth Kuennen, Robert White, Jeff Angelo, George Forbes, Darrow Uhlenhopp, Jacqui Norman, Ben Rittgers, Randy Yontz, Chad Airhart, Isaiah McGee, Shane Blanchard, Rob Taylor, Jon McAvoy, Mike Elam, Chris McLinden, Arleigh Clemens, Deb Thornton, Cynthia Michel, William Keettel, Natalie Ginty, Debra Derksen, Irene Chalmers-Neubauer, Roger Anderson, Leah Adams, Tim Hagle, Jim Sandager, Polk County Supervisor Robert Brownell, Charles Schneider, Mary Kramer, Jim Aipperspach, Steve Gaer, Eric Woolson, Gregory Hudson, Gary Kirke, Westside Conservative Club Founder Paul Zietlow, State Rep. Scott Raecker, Jacob Chapman, Jill Ellsworth, Polk County Supervisor E.J. Giovannetti, Paula Dierenfeld, Urbandale City Councilman Creighton Cox, Andy Christenson, Connie Schmett, Will Rogers, Matt Nolan, Paul French, Kathy French, Judd Saul, Greg Tagtow, Mac McDonald.