Will Speaker Kraig Paulsen Enter into the Race for Braley's Seat?

Will political change in 2014 go straight through Linn County?

The county already has a Democratic candidate for Bruce Braley's soon to be vacant First U.S. Congressional seat, another Democratic candidate for that seat, a Republican candidate for the seat, as well as a candidate that could challenge incumbent Gov. Terry Branstad.

Now political insiders in Iowa are wondering if another big Linn County name is going to be added to the mix: Kraig Paulsen, (R- Hiawatha) the current Iowa Speaker of the House for the majority Republican party.

The Iowa Republican has a nice piece analyzing the likelihood of Paulsen entering, noting that he would likely become the Republican frontrunner if he entered the race.

Perhaps the worst kept secret in Iowa politics is that Kraig Paulsen, the Speaker of the Iowa House of Representatives, is planning to run for Congress in Iowa’s 1st Congressional District.  Political insiders have talked about Paulsen’s probable candidacy for months now, yet he has made few public moves that suggest an announcement is imminent.

While some politicians might have used the legislative session that concluded in the spring as a launching pad for a congressional bid, Paulsen chose instead to keep his ambitions to run for Congress quiet.  Many speculated that Paulsen didn’t want to enter the race until after the June 30th fundraising deadline, a move that would allow him a full three month period to raise money for his campaign before have to disclose his haul.  The first of July has come and gone, and yet Paulsen is still not a candidate.

Perhaps Paulsen is waiting to get into the race until sometime in October following the conclusion of the October quarterly fundraising period.  While condensing the length of the primary has its advantages, putting off the start of his campaign also comes with significant risks.  There is little doubt that Paulsen will be viewed as the Republican frontrunner in the race should he decided to actually seek the Republican nomination, but it would be a mistake to underestimate his Republican opponents and impact that the Democrat primary field may also have on the Republican primary next June. 

There's more to the analysis and it's worth the read if you click the above link.

Included in the analysis is the mention that Linn County is the largest population center in the First U.S. Congressional District, so if Paulsen entered he would likely have to at the very least battle Cedar Rapids Steve Rathje for Linn County votes to secure the nomination, and then take on a potential Linn County candidate from the other party.

So what do you think, should Paulsen, who has been very successful in his district since 2002 and the has been Speaker of the House for the past four years, take a chance at the nomination?